The FIDE Women’s Events 2024–2025 series has reached its critical conclusion. With seven of the eight coveted spots in the Women’s Candidates Tournament 2026 already secured through various qualification pathways—including the stellar performances of Vaishali Rameshbabu and Kateryna Lagno at the Grand Swiss—the focus now shifts entirely to the final, solitary berth.
This remaining spot is determined purely by points accumulated across the two-year series, culminating in the high-octane environment of the Women`s Rapid and Blitz Championships 2025. This situation effectively turns the final set of tournaments into a sudden-death qualifier for a host of elite players, where years of consistent performance hang on results measured in minutes.
The Frontrunner: Bibisara Assaubayeva’s Precarious Lead
Currently sitting in the pole position for this final berth is Bibisara Assaubayeva, who has amassed 99.4 points. Technically, she occupies the eighth position in the overall standings, just below the seven players who have already qualified through other means. The math is simple, but the execution is anything but.
Assaubayeva`s profile—that of a two-time World Women’s Blitz Champion—suggests a significant tactical advantage heading into the final rapid and blitz format. While her lead is tangible, it is far from insurmountable. In the frenetic, unforgiving world of fast time controls, one subpar performance can zero out a two-year investment. She enters the final stage as the hunted, bearing the full weight of expectation. For her competitors, however, she is simply the target.
The Chasing Pack: High-Profile Threats
The margin for error is non-existent for the players clustered immediately behind the leader. Several world-class competitors possess the capacity to completely overhaul the standings at the final championships in Qatar. These challengers include:
- Song Yuxin (80 points)
- Anna Muzychuk (80 points)
- Lei Tingjie (62 points) – A crucial competitor, given she is a former Women’s Candidates winner, showing her capability to perform under ultimate pressure.
- Harika Dronavalli (58.5 points)
The gap separating these players is negligible when considering the sheer number of points distributed during the Rapid and Blitz Championships. A strong gold-medal finish in either of these events yields massive returns, capable of flipping the leaderboard entirely. In this system, consistency over two years matters less than peak performance in the final two days. It is a technical arrangement that rewards brilliance precisely when the stakes are highest.
The Mathematical Lottery: Veterans and Dark Horses
Further down the rankings lies a group of accomplished players whose chances are mathematically extant, though challenging. To secure the spot, they would require not only a phenomenal victory but also an extraordinary collapse from the leading group.
This group includes former Women’s World Champion Alexandra Kosteniuk (38.5 points), her sister Mariya Muzychuk (26.40 points), and strong contenders such as Irina Krush and Nana Dzagnidze. Their participation in the final events adds significant strategic depth, as they can inadvertently—or deliberately—affect the standings of the frontrunners. While achieving the necessary points might feel akin to winning the lottery, the history of chess is littered with instances where long shots delivered when it mattered most.
The Final Battleground
The Women’s Rapid and Blitz Championships 2025 are therefore not merely stand-alone tournaments; they are the crucible for the final phase of the Women`s Candidates Cycle. Every game played will carry the crushing weight of qualification for the right to challenge for the women’s world title. The atmosphere in Qatar will be charged, not just with the standard competitive tension, but with the knowledge that one player`s triumph means years of effort for another player have fallen short by mere fractions of a point.
The final outcome of this race promises a dramatic conclusion to the qualification cycle. All contenders face the daunting reality: to claim the eighth and final spot, they must not only play their best chess but also perfectly navigate the volatile mathematics of the FIDE points system, proving that sometimes, being technically superior in a rapid format is the only criterion that matters.
Finley Holt